Understanding Paths to Migration

By Andrea Arias, Jimin Lee, and Keili Tucker

How does economic opportunity affect migration?

To be a migrant is to have your life and your story politicized. Fleeing violence or natural disasters, seeking economic opportunities, or moving for a new job in a foreign country becomes a political act rather than a personal one. Over the past decade the number of migrants from Central America to the United States has been steadily increasing and unfortunately, prejudice against migrants and fears over “caravans” of migrants have been increasing alongside. But who are the migrants? What are their stories?

The 5000 households

Our data comes from a World Food Program survey of around 5000 households in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador.

These 5000 households were asked about their income level, willingness to migrate, and migration plans.

Let’s start by diving into the level of financial comfort of the households surveyed.

"Which of these statements is closest to how you feel about your household income these days?"

This survey question provides a general picture of the income brackets of our respondents. Let's focus in on those who answered "we are in a very critical situation with our current income."

Some children in Honduras rely on food kitchens to get one meal a day.
Children at the makeshift community of Jesus of Nazaret out the outskirts of El Progreso, Honduras,
rely on a volunteer community kitchen for one meal a day. Without it, many would go hungry. Photo by Bernardo Coronel for America CGTN

"Do you consider that in the last year violence in the place where you live has increased, decreased, or stayed the same?

Here we can see that a minority of the respondents claimed to have experienced no violence or crime at all.

It is even possible that those who responded "Diminished" are still experiencing violence frequently. Especially in the case of households with children, this experience may play a significant role in decision to migrate.

Members of the Ramirez family walk along train tracks in Coatzacoalcos in the Mexican state of Veracruz on March 23, 2021.
They fled their home in Santa Barbara, Honduras after their lives were threatened by gang members. Erica Ramirez is nine months pregnant.
Photo by Yael Martínez—Magnum for TIME

"Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move permanently or for a long period to another country?"

The number of families seeking to migrate may make sense given the story that is always told of migrants fleeing a lack of economic opportunity, though the reality is often that many people at this level of instability cannot afford migration.

For those who have attempted to migrate themselves or have family members who have, the average cost in USD was around $6000.

"Are you planning to move to another country in the next 12 months?"

Here we can see that a lower proportion of households are currently planning to migrate than those who would would like to.

This could be due to a range of reasons, but given the high cost of migration and the financial vulnerability of this subset, it's very likely that financial constraints play a role.

Of the families who want to migrate but are not planning on migrating, there are a variety of stated reasons, the most common being not having enough money to pay for the transfer or to pay for housing in another country.

Conclusions

Here we can get a sense of how lower income households fare, understand why someone may want to migrate, and learn why they may not be able to. We can understand these stories as more than dots or more than political controversy in the US. Every dot here is a household with a story and life and we hope to shed a little light on that story.

A train runs along the border between Brownsville, Texas, and Matamoros in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas on May 7, 2021. Yael Martinez—Magnum Photos for TIME